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Feature Report
T-Bird Redux Undone
01 May 03
Matt Joesp
"We have always planned to build it for four model years, and that's what we are going to do. It would be wrong to keep building it and erode its value. It's a collectors [sic] vehicle."
Ford Division President, Steve Lyons, announcing that Ford would stop making the new Thunderbird in 2005 or 2006
Quoted from an interview with the Detroit News, 4-22-03
It never ceases to amaze me, the penchant that some political and industrial leaders have for enhancing their failures by dissembling ridiculous explanations to avoid blame for the bad situations hatched by their blunders.
I am absolutely certain that the reasons for ending production of Ford's failing new Thunderbird, after one model iteration, have entirely nothing to do with "doing the right thing" by car collectors, to prevent the erosion of the values of their collector car investments.
Or is that why Lincoln built the short-lived and ill-fated Blackwood? Was that marketing disaster intended to create instant collector cars? Get serious….
The day that a top official of a major car company earnestly entertains such a consideration is the day that its shareholders have some responsibility to come after him or her, mumbling by torchlight and brandishing hatchets and burlap bags.
A more plausible reason for ceasing production of the new T-Bird, after only four or five years, may be that it is selling way below expectations.
Inventories this year have bulged as high as a 183-day supply, and now stand around 130-days. That is more than two times the "ideal" 55-day supply, and despite Ford applying large cash incentives to coax consumers to buy the Bird.
Attempted exculpatory fictions aside, there are three reasons that the new Thunderbird is failing in the marketplace. Almost all "retro cars" enjoy very short half-lives of success. Besides, the new Thunderbird is far from a great car, and its recent marketing was botched. That one-two-three punch is proving fatal.
Around the turn-of-the-millennium, some form of bizarre corporate vanity seems to have overcome common sense and experience, causing car company executives to approve the production of numerous retro cars that hearken back to vehicles or themes from their companies' salad days.
At or near the turn-of-this-century, the New Beetle, Audi TT, PT-Cruiser, new Mini and new Ford Thunderbird tumbled out of this retro car-new-copia.
With the exception of the PT-Cruiser and the new Mini, each of these has failed badly enough in the marketplace that none of them is likely see a second generation.
Consider the present state of things.
The Puebla, Mexico line that builds the New Beetle is shut down, due to what is rapidly becoming chronic excess inventory.
The T-Bird is in serious oversupply, and will engender a second iteration.
Audi's Bauhaus-inspired TT is in huge supply, and now requires heavy incentives to sell. TT is unlikely to see a revision.
Only the PT-Cruiser and new Mini have avoided market failure, to date. While PT-Cruiser sales have cooled, they remain respectable. The new Mini is too new on the market to predict its sales durability.
Two conclusions flow from this. The less expensive a mass-produced retro car is, the better seem its chances of success. PT-Cruiser and new Mini are low on the automotive price scale, while TT and Thunderbird are upscale.
The New Beetle is such a wretched automobile that even its low price cannot save it.
Its very concept, building a front-engine, front-wheel-drive, liquid-cooled automobile to do homage to a rear-engine, rear-wheel-drive, air-cooled car openly assaults sensitivity, not to mention defying reason.
Retro cars are a fad market. They are not "hot, gotta have" products for very long after arrival. Each one assumes center stage under the hot white spotlight of fame and impulse buying. After six months, or so, it is pushed off the stage to cool, and the next retro car arrives under that white, center stage spotlight.
Despite the apparent love that auto company executives have for building retro cars, the market reality is that relatively few car buyers want to express themselves that way. When you mass produce the things, you tend, quickly, to saturate the market for them. Pretty soon, everyone who wanted and could afford one has taken the plunge.
The second coming of the Thunderbird suffered from all of those structural marketing problems, introduction in a weakening economy and added a few issues of its own.
It is terribly cramped inside. That is a serious concern, since at between $35,000 and $40,000, it is designed to appeal to well-heeled baby boomers. The problem is, many in that now affluent group are well-girthed, in addition to being well-heeled.
Then there was a production botch which delayed T-Bird's new, electronic throttle engine by months. Reviewers noted that the early new T-Birds were deficient in off-the-mark performance.
Ford remedied that with a 10% torque and power upgrade for 2003. But delays in producing the improved engine created a glut of '02s last fall and winter, when people were demanding the improved '03s. That tarnished T-Bird's image as a "hot item," and resulted in Ford putting incentives on the car. That further degraded its image.
However, in the best tradition of car company hyperbole, after announcing the 2005 or 2006 demise of the new T-Bird, Ford Division President, Steve Lyons, promises, "We could bring it back."
Against which I advise, and to which I add, "Give it a (very long) rest."
T-Bird Redux Undone
01 May 03
Matt Joesp
"We have always planned to build it for four model years, and that's what we are going to do. It would be wrong to keep building it and erode its value. It's a collectors [sic] vehicle."
Ford Division President, Steve Lyons, announcing that Ford would stop making the new Thunderbird in 2005 or 2006
Quoted from an interview with the Detroit News, 4-22-03
It never ceases to amaze me, the penchant that some political and industrial leaders have for enhancing their failures by dissembling ridiculous explanations to avoid blame for the bad situations hatched by their blunders.
I am absolutely certain that the reasons for ending production of Ford's failing new Thunderbird, after one model iteration, have entirely nothing to do with "doing the right thing" by car collectors, to prevent the erosion of the values of their collector car investments.
Or is that why Lincoln built the short-lived and ill-fated Blackwood? Was that marketing disaster intended to create instant collector cars? Get serious….
The day that a top official of a major car company earnestly entertains such a consideration is the day that its shareholders have some responsibility to come after him or her, mumbling by torchlight and brandishing hatchets and burlap bags.
A more plausible reason for ceasing production of the new T-Bird, after only four or five years, may be that it is selling way below expectations.
Inventories this year have bulged as high as a 183-day supply, and now stand around 130-days. That is more than two times the "ideal" 55-day supply, and despite Ford applying large cash incentives to coax consumers to buy the Bird.
Attempted exculpatory fictions aside, there are three reasons that the new Thunderbird is failing in the marketplace. Almost all "retro cars" enjoy very short half-lives of success. Besides, the new Thunderbird is far from a great car, and its recent marketing was botched. That one-two-three punch is proving fatal.
Around the turn-of-the-millennium, some form of bizarre corporate vanity seems to have overcome common sense and experience, causing car company executives to approve the production of numerous retro cars that hearken back to vehicles or themes from their companies' salad days.
At or near the turn-of-this-century, the New Beetle, Audi TT, PT-Cruiser, new Mini and new Ford Thunderbird tumbled out of this retro car-new-copia.
With the exception of the PT-Cruiser and the new Mini, each of these has failed badly enough in the marketplace that none of them is likely see a second generation.
Consider the present state of things.
The Puebla, Mexico line that builds the New Beetle is shut down, due to what is rapidly becoming chronic excess inventory.
The T-Bird is in serious oversupply, and will engender a second iteration.
Audi's Bauhaus-inspired TT is in huge supply, and now requires heavy incentives to sell. TT is unlikely to see a revision.
Only the PT-Cruiser and new Mini have avoided market failure, to date. While PT-Cruiser sales have cooled, they remain respectable. The new Mini is too new on the market to predict its sales durability.
Two conclusions flow from this. The less expensive a mass-produced retro car is, the better seem its chances of success. PT-Cruiser and new Mini are low on the automotive price scale, while TT and Thunderbird are upscale.
The New Beetle is such a wretched automobile that even its low price cannot save it.
Its very concept, building a front-engine, front-wheel-drive, liquid-cooled automobile to do homage to a rear-engine, rear-wheel-drive, air-cooled car openly assaults sensitivity, not to mention defying reason.
Retro cars are a fad market. They are not "hot, gotta have" products for very long after arrival. Each one assumes center stage under the hot white spotlight of fame and impulse buying. After six months, or so, it is pushed off the stage to cool, and the next retro car arrives under that white, center stage spotlight.
Despite the apparent love that auto company executives have for building retro cars, the market reality is that relatively few car buyers want to express themselves that way. When you mass produce the things, you tend, quickly, to saturate the market for them. Pretty soon, everyone who wanted and could afford one has taken the plunge.
The second coming of the Thunderbird suffered from all of those structural marketing problems, introduction in a weakening economy and added a few issues of its own.
It is terribly cramped inside. That is a serious concern, since at between $35,000 and $40,000, it is designed to appeal to well-heeled baby boomers. The problem is, many in that now affluent group are well-girthed, in addition to being well-heeled.
Then there was a production botch which delayed T-Bird's new, electronic throttle engine by months. Reviewers noted that the early new T-Birds were deficient in off-the-mark performance.
Ford remedied that with a 10% torque and power upgrade for 2003. But delays in producing the improved engine created a glut of '02s last fall and winter, when people were demanding the improved '03s. That tarnished T-Bird's image as a "hot item," and resulted in Ford putting incentives on the car. That further degraded its image.
However, in the best tradition of car company hyperbole, after announcing the 2005 or 2006 demise of the new T-Bird, Ford Division President, Steve Lyons, promises, "We could bring it back."
Against which I advise, and to which I add, "Give it a (very long) rest."
