Well the bottom won't drop out, but the premium over MSRP will quickly fade as the early adopters get theirs. Some people who thought they could resell at a big profit are already bailing out because it looks like they will not appreciate over MSRP.
By Spring, there will be enough in service, in stock unsold and on trade-in to stop the $5-10,000 over nonsense. Dealers will be forced to take their last allocation with out the
hard top, since it is a controlled commodity. They will have to dump some of these, depressing the price further.
Customers that were told that they would be charged over MSRP have already given up on Ford and it's gouging dealers and have gone elsewhere. The 2003 orders will start being taken in the late 2nd quarter of 2002. There will be new colors and minor freshining and some buyers will wait for them instead of buying a 2002 at that time.
Plus, times are not that good for a lot of potential buyers. Portfolios are down, jobs are in jeopardy, etc. We have already seen buyers cancel their orders, or give up their position due to the economy.
They are worth the $40 grand and represent a good value at that price. But they will be like so many Corvettes, PT Cruisers, etc. that can't hold a premium after the early adopters are satisfied. Ford know what the market is and it is 100,000 units at $40,000 over 4 years. Just my opinion.