The Numbers

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thenewtbird2

UPDATE EMAIL ADDRESS
In response to The New Blackbird and Nutty Gambler on the Thunderbird Collection

New Blackbird said: "A rough estimation of how to calculate what you VIN number will be or when your car will be built is as follows...."

Ok, let's do the actual numbers. At 7 of 26 - my dealer will have only received 25% of his allotment by the end of February - that's not close to 40% - he falls short by 4 cars so far. If I subtract the 3 cars that were added to his original allotment, which was 23 - then he'll only be at 30% of his allotment or, 2 cars short. Since he appears to be falling short in the VIN assignment system, I can't justify calculating my position in his allotment as being a close approximation of my vin#. Your calculations worked because your dealer is falling close to the projected deliveries. It would be nice to hear that my dealer received 4 VIN# before the end of this month but he's only been getting 2 VIN#/month for the last 3 months and I don't forsee that changing this month though it'll have to change sometime in order for him to get all of his allotment.

for Nutty Gambler: approx 4200 cars were delivered by mid November - completing the "first deliveries" (4275 had been built by the end of October according to data on the Automotive News website)

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At the current rate of production, 50% of the cars will have been built by the end of this month, or, if you subtract the first ones from 12500 - 4500 = 8000 of 20500 (25000-4500) which is 40% of the rest of the Thunderbirds left to be built. (I rounded the number of 1st cars up to 4500 to make calc. appear easier)

update - I guess that last paragraph is confusing, I meant that the 8000 number is 40% of what is left to be built of the 20500.




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thenewtbird2


My dealer has received the VINs for 40% of his allotment (3 of 7) he has only received 30% of his deliveries (2 of 7) . The third delivery (my car) was shipped from Wixom on Monday and should be here by next Friday.

Your dealer’s original allotment was 23 cars he should have received VINs on 40% of those cars by now (9 cars) he should have received delivery on 30% of those cars (7 cars). The additional 3 cars allotted to him will probably be shipped when available.
 
I tried the calculation on a number of cars that I have VINs and allotment numbers on and it does not work very well.

Using RAMM's car as an example the calculation predicts his VIN to be 5263 but it is 11508, difference = 6244.
 
It seems like my dealer is one of the few that has been allocated VINs and received deliveries as originally anticipated. Each dealer was supposed to receive one car each first. Then the balance of the dealer’s allocation was supposed to be distributed evenly over the remaining production year. Allocation of 24 cars was 2 per month etc.

Some dealers originally overstated how many cars they would have available for sale, thinking they could purchase cars from other dealers. My dealer showed me faxes he has received from other dealers looking for additional cars to fill orders they have taken or want to take.

Some dealers have moved customers up and down their waiting list without telling them their position on the list has changed. When I put my deposit down I was number 2 of 7, 6 months later I was all of sudden number 3 of 7. The only reason I knew was because he called to tell me. He explained that a long time customer wanted a car immediately and was willing to pay $10,000 over MRSP so he gave him my allocation. He also explained that he didn’t have to tell me considering it’s not a published list, and he thought I would understand being I am paying MRSP. I did understand, and waited two additional months but still got mine at list along with a promise that I wouldn’t be bumped again.

Other dealers have lost customers during the waiting period, such as GW. The dealer then had a choice of moving everyone else up the list or replacing the removed one with someone new. Good dealers just moved their existing customers up the list.
 
Don't know if this will help you number crunchers out there, it's getting too complicated for me. But my dealer is expecting his 5th one to come in next week. Doesn't have any vins for the balance. they'er getting 12 Birds, now have 5th on the way. Hope this helps, and no he didn't give me a vin on the 5th one yet but he said he will call me later.

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02 T-Bird
69 Vette
73 MGB
97 F-150 4x4
2-Seadoo Jet Skies
a dog a cat and a couple hundred fish in my pond
 
New Blackbird - Wish our dealer had done
what yours did. Instead of kicking customers
down the list.

I didn't find out from the salesman,
the customer relations gal spilled the beans.
 
You numbers people, help me a little with this. The wait is getting exruciaiting{sp?}.

1. I am 10 0f 18. I think that translates to a VIN of approx. 13,900. Is that correct??

2. Wixom has built about 11,000 as of today and their current going rate is 112/day.

3. 13,900-11,000=2,900 more until mine is built.

4. 2,900/112=26 more work days.

5. Feb. 7 +26 workdays is March 15

6. March 15 plus 3 weeks for delivery menas I will have my car about April 5.

jodrod, thenewbird2 and anyone else....are my calculations amnd estimates correct?

Pls tell me I've made a major miscalculation and my car will be here tomorrow.

Thanks

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blue/blue/full blue/premium on order: 10 of 18
 
As I recall, about 5,000 vehicles were delivered by late Dec. All dealers got 1 by then. Assuming that there are about 1,300 dealers that only get 1, they are out of the computation at that time. So from Jan. through Aug. there should be about 18,000 units to be delivered to 3,000 US dealerships. That's about 2,250 per month.

They way I've got it figured, the dealerships that will get more than 1 unit, should be 50% complete in April. 2 of 2's will likely show up in May or June.

Wixom is producing at a slightly faster rate currently, but summer vacations may slow it down a bit. They will likely lose some time around the 4th of July break.

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Regarding the 2 of 2's showing up in May or June, I'm #2 of 2 and have been notified that ETA is 3/04 and based on dealer's delivery experience to expect it 1 or even 2 weeks before.
Originally posted by RedBirdDlx:
As I recall, about 5,000 vehicles were delivered by late Dec. All dealers got 1 by then. Assuming that there are about 1,300 dealers that only get 1, they are out of the computation at that time. So from Jan. through Aug. there should be about 18,000 units to be delivered to 3,000 US dealerships. That's about 2,250 per month.

They way I've got it figured, the dealerships that will get more than 1 unit, should be 50% complete in April. 2 of 2's will likely show up in May or June.

Wixom is producing at a slightly faster rate currently, but summer vacations may slow it down a bit. They will likely lose some time around the 4th of July break.

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Jim Williams
'98 Lincoln Continental waiting forred/red/std blk premium (#2 of 2 VIN 1FEHP60E62Y111592)
Mass. tag JWBIRD Christmas gift from #3 daughter
 
joelga, et.al;

All these numbers are hurting my head. I just hope that my Bird will be here by the time the N.Ga. rally starts. I would hate to be Birdless "again". I guess I could trailer my 66' Bird. I don't think she would take the strain of all those mountains at this time. On the bright side my dealer did tell me that I have moved up from being about 21 away from my Bird to about 12 away. This I guess is only about 1/2 an eternity. But time passes and Spring will be here before you know it and maybe the Easter Bunny will put a Blue Bird in my Easter Basket if I am a good boy. To all you folks who recently got your Bird's that I haven't had a chance to congratulate, I hope you enjoy many miles in your Bird and keep the stories coming.



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Courage - and shuffle the cards
 
Whew...I think a Ouija board is the next scientific option...
with all of the calculations I don't thinks anyone knows anything until the dealer calls and tells you that they have paperwork with a VIN...and even then..it's 3 weeks away..
Good luck everyone...
 
Leonk,

Right now I agree, the distribution among dealers is not very consistant. Im' getting the board out tonight.
smile.gif
 
I'm just trying to get this stright. You talk about dealers getting one or two Thunderbirds, there are dealers(crooks) in New Jersey and New York State with loads of Birds, One dealer I stopped by had at least 25 (including 2 NM's, but they all want from $5000.00 to $12000.00 over list. The two NM editions, the dealer wants $27000.00 over list, yes that comes to $70,000.00 I love these cars but have these dealers gone totally nuts? I have to wait for the prices to get real, maybe until the 2003s come out
 
Joe : I've verified it the VIN is correct.
Originally posted by jodrod:
jaw,

I believe your vin shoud be 1FAHP60A62Y111592 as opposed to 1FEHP60E62Y111592.



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Jim Williams
'98 Lincoln Continental waiting forred/red/std blk premium (#2 of 2 VIN 1FEHP60E62Y111592)
Mass. tag JWBIRD Christmas gift from #3 daughter
 
Joe: I apologize I just checked again and you are correct how the hell did you figure that out? You are somethin else.
Originally posted by jodrod:
jaw,

I believe your vin shoud be 1FAHP60A62Y111592 as opposed to 1FEHP60E62Y111592.



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Jim Williams
'98 Lincoln Continental waiting forred/red/std blk premium (#2 of 2 VIN 1FEHP60E62Y111592)
Mass. tag JWBIRD Christmas gift from #3 daughter
 
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